Sofia (002572): High cardinality causes performance pressure and waits for later inversion
Investment Highlights The company released the first quarter report of 19: the report consolidated and the company realized revenue11.85 ‰, a decrease of 4 per year.67%; net profit attributable to mother 1.0.7 million yuan, an increase of 3 every year.69%; Net profit after rejecting non-recurring gains and losses is 0.7.9 billion, a decrease of 18 previously.32%.Non-recurring gains and losses increased by 27.47 million yuan, mainly due to investment income of 37.42 million yuan from transactional financial assets. Multiple factors have led to pressure on revenue, and the big home strategy has been steadily advancing: 2018Q4 promotional activities have had very little effect, overlapping 19 years before the Spring Festival. The number of orders received in 19Q1 fell short of expectations; at the same time, the company adopted a certain price reduction promotion strategy in 19Q1., Resulting in pressure on the company’s revenue growth.After the company continued to improve its promotional policies, the front-end store orders from March to April have gradually picked up, and sales in 19Q2 are expected to improve sequentially.In addition, in order to meet the changes in market consumption trends and meet consumer demand for one-stop purchases, speed up the opening of large home stores. Until the end of March, 137 large home stores have been opened, which will continue to drive the increase in customer unit prices. The unit price of wardrobe customers has steadily increased, and the proportion of bulk has increased: a series of company wardrobes and accessories are reported to achieve revenue9.7.7 billion (-7.11%), accounting for 82% of total revenue.41%; gross margin increased by 0 in ten years.10 points to 37.65%.During the company’s wardrobe, the number of customers exceeded 8.60,000, previously reduced by 9.58%, the customer unit price increased from 10,556 yuan / order in Q1 18 to 10825 yuan / order.The company continues to adopt a composite marketing model that mainly focuses on dealers, supplemented by direct franchised stores and bulk user business. Among them, the sales channel of the dealer channel accounts for a large proportion.54%, the proportion of direct franchised store sales was 3.83%, the proportion of bulk business channels increased to 10.09% (8% in 18 years).At the end of the termination period, there were 2,659 “Sophia” full-house custom-made specialty stores (excluding 216 supermarket stores of 20m2-60m2), and about 59 were added at the end of the earlier 18 years, with a single store revenue of 36.730,000 (year -20.53%), due to the temporary passenger flow, the unit price of retail wardrobes is reduced by 4.87%. Kitchen cabinets continue to exert their strength and reduce losses well: the report shows that the company’s kitchen cabinet business achieved revenue1.0.8 billion yuan (+12.98%), gross profit margin increased by 2.85pct to 20.84%, net profit -1817.720,000 yuan, a year of 34 losses.36% is expected to be due to increased orders and increased capacity utilization.As of 19Q1, SMI Kitchen Cabinet has 822 independent SMI specialty stores (not previously added), corresponding to a single store revenue of about 13.180,000 yuan (+0.34%). The wooden door dealer strategy adjusted to reap benefits and achieve rapid growth: 19Q1 wooden door business achieved zero revenue.2.8 billion (+36.12%), net profit was -1,377.590,000 yuan, a year of loss reduction of 22.92%.At the end of the termination period, the company had a total of 134 independent Milanan MILANA stores (excluding 41 in the decoration store), and more than 170 custom-made wooden doors of the Huahe brand, corresponding to a single store revenue9.340,000 yuan (+27.61%).In addition, the company will integrate wooden door products into more Sophia stores to achieve channel coordination. Gross profit margin declined slightly, increasing promotional efforts: Reported increase in gross sales margin34.39%, a decrease of 0 per year.36pct; period expense ratio totals 26.28%, an increase of 1 each year.87 points.By item, the selling expense ratio increased by 1.63pct to 12.78%, tie with 3.15 promotional activities, increased advertising efforts; management + R & D expense ratio 12.93%, unchanged from the same period last year; the financial expense ratio increased by 0.24pct to 0.57%, due to the company’s additional short-term borrowings based on operating needs.Taken together, the net profit margin of the first-tier company is 9.02% (decade +0.73pct). Increasing the proportion of large blocks leads to an increase in receivables, dragging down operating cash flow: reports and company receivables 4.6.2 billion, compared with the same period last year 2.9 billion increased by 1.7.2 billion, due to the rapid growth of bulk business.Accounts receivable turnover days increased by several decades.38 days to 32.99 days, inventory turnover days increased by 3 for decades.31 days to 35.53 days, all due to the rapid growth of bulk business.Net operating cash flow -4.1.9 billion, -2 from the same period last year.5 billion reduced by 1.6.9 billion. Multi-pronged consolidation of competitive advantages, long-term optimistic leader expanded to: Although faced with multiple oppression factors 北京桑拿洗浴保健 leading to increased revenue growth rate to increase the decline rate, the company successfully broke through new environmental protection products, aggressively promote dealer reform, and enhance the image of terminal storesContinuously improving production efficiency has further consolidated the company’s competitive strength.Based on Sophia’s expected product power and channel power, we believe that follow-up companies are expected to achieve industry integration and increase their share through multi-flowering products and channel strategies.Continue to be optimistic about the long-term development of the company! Earnings forecast and investment grade: We expect to achieve revenue 83 in 19-21, respectively.9/97.2/113.500 million, an increase of 14.8% / 15.8% / 16.7%; net profit attributable to mother 10.7/12.1/14.0 苏州桑拿网 billion, an increase of 11.9% / 12.7% / 15.3%.The current priority is 18.79X / 16.67X / 14.45X, maintain “Buy” rating. Risk warning: Land growth exceeds expectations, and channel development fails to meet expectations.