Juhua Co., Ltd. (600160): Accelerating the Renewal of Refrigerants and Starting the Golden Decade

Juhua Co., Ltd. (600160): Accelerating the Renewal of Refrigerants and Starting the Golden Decade

The fluorinator leader leads the new cycle of refrigerants, and for the first time covers the upgrade of the “buy” rating of refrigerants. The second-generation refrigerants may start a new cycle of prosperity. The concentration of the third-generation refrigerant industry will continue to increase.As a global giant in the fluorochemical and refrigerant industries, it will fully benefit from this industry change.

We predict the company’s net profit for 2019-2021 will be 9 respectively.

30, 11.

76, 14.

39 trillion, EPS is 0.

34, 0.

43, 0.

52 yuan / share, corresponding to 2019-2021 PE is 19 under current sustainability.

4, 15.

3, 12.

5 times.

Covered for the first time and given a “Buy” rating.

The second-generation refrigerant gap is recurring, and R22 will enter the booming cycle. According to the 武汉夜网论坛 plan of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, R22 production in 2020 will gradually be significantly reduced compared to 20194.

22 inches (at least -15.

8%) to 22.

48 initially, and the R22 downstream repair market is large, we estimate that R22 will appear 3.
.

A supply and demand gap of at least 20 may push R22 into a new cycle of prosperity.

Sales of company R22 5.

For 87 pounds, each time the R22 unit price increases by 1,000 yuan / ton, we estimate that the company’s net profit will increase by 44 million yuan.

The third-generation refrigerant is the mainstream refrigerant in the future. It is expected that after the reverse, the “golden decade” of high prosperity will change in air-conditioning production and sales in 2019.The logical model of “real estate → air conditioner / refrigerator → refrigerant”, we calculated that the demand for refrigerants will be 1 by the completion of housing in 2020.

At 4%, the marginal improvement in refrigerant demand was significant.

As the mainstream refrigerant of the future, the third-generation refrigerant has been frozen in increasing production capacity. The gradual management is about to fall on the legislative framework. The prices and spreads of major products have entered the bottom range.

The company has three generations of refrigerants with a total capacity of 25. As the industry leader, its market share will further increase in future market competition and integration.

With the steady rise in refrigeration demand, the second-generation refrigerants have gradually withdrawn, and the fourth-generation refrigerants are widely distant. We are optimistic that the third-generation refrigerants are expected to start the “golden decade” of high prosperity in the future, which is good for the company’s related business.

The application of fluorine-containing new materials is developing rapidly. The company will make full use of its domesticization to replace progress. The application of fluorine-containing new materials in 5G, electronics, new energy, medical and other industries will develop rapidly. We expect the growth rate to remain at 6.

About 6%.

With technological transformation and upgrading projects, 2.

The implementation of 35 content / year fluorine-containing new materials (Phase 2), 1 content / year PVDF (Phase 1), fluorine rubber and other projects, the company’s fluoropolymer business will further scale, new varieties, new uses, and high-endDevelopment is expected to become a new growth pole to promote the company’s development.

Risk reminders: production safety risks, sluggish downstream demand, and large fluctuations in product prices.